What the S-Curve Means for Startups
Last week, Simon Persson and I spoke at Hyper Island about the inextricable link between product and brand when launching something new. A highlight of the talk was the S-curve, which maps the lifecycle of innovation, sparking an in-depth discussion with the 30-person class about how to apply this thinking to their own ventures.
What’s the S-Curve?
In its simplest form, the S-curve shows the progression of new technology from crazy idea to rapid growth to boring ubiquity. As the functionality and application of the technology improves, mass consumption increases (ideally) and perception of the technology plateaus. A common example is the smartphone. What started as an advanced mobile phone for businessmen in the early 1990s evolved into a superpowered, handheld computer which 3.5 billion people use today.
The S-curve originated with Everett Rogers in 1962. In his seminal book Diffusions of Innovation, Rogers explored what factors influence the spread of new ideas and technology. Among his many insights, Rogers popularized the technology adoptions lifecycle (a.k.a the infamous bell curve every marketer has seared in their memory).
So what’s the point?
Great question! If every technology follows an S-curve, what does it mean when you’re building a product with multiple technologies in one? For example, a smartphone app in which conversational AI advises how you mine and trade cryptocurrency. Smartphone = boring. Machine learning = exciting. Cryptocurrency = still kind of stupid, starting to become exciting.
The point is that looking at a singular S-curve in relation to the technology adoption lifecycle has its limitations. When developing a new product (we’ll continue to assume this is an app), there are layers of S-curves to consider and different rates of market adoption to account for. And this is where the relationship between product and brand becomes so important.
Technology considered to be “boring” can be just as difficult to push as something “stupid” or “exciting”. Who needs another app on their smartphone? And, of course, for technology just on the rise, how do we build consumer trust and find enough traction to continue advancing the tech itself? In times like these, branding makes all the difference to explain, attract, engage, and grow a new venture.
Every phase of the S-curve has its own adoption lifecycle. It is important to consider how the technology applies to the product to create accessible, compelling user experiences. And how to build (or grow) a brand that capitalizes on the curve.
